Who are the contenders?

In the days leading up to the contest, Azerbaijan has the momentum.  Safura’s “Drip Drop” is a pop-ballad with RnB influences; it’s relevant, soulful, and catchy. It’s the buzz entry and the bookie’s choice.

Other entries poised to compete this year:

• Germany “Satellite”, a cute, quirky pop tune, made cuter and quirkier by Lena’s odd English pronunciations.  She’s an engaging performer and has the influential support of Stefan Raab behind her.
• Armenia “Apricot Stone,” a singer-songwriter story song.  The staging will feature a tree growing out of a giant apricot pit. Roald Dahl would be proud.
• Israel “Milim”. This year’s best ballad, gloriously oversung by Harel Skaat.
• Denmark “In a Moment Like This,” an uber-pop duet.  The shine is off slightly because Chanee and N’Evergreen have struggled in rehearsals, but if they can execute the song is just like candy—sweet, irresistible, and goes down real easy. 

Which are this year’s guilty pleasures?

Let’s face it, this is why we watch.  At the core of an unhealthy Eurovision obsession is a deep affection for kitsch, train wrecks, and pop culture gone horribly awry.

• Iceland “Je ne se Quois”.  In the capable hands of Hera Bjork, Iceland’s perennial Eurovision entry back-up singer, this song is a disco diva masterpiece.
• Serbia “Ovo je Balkan”. This year’s shout out entry to the Balkans is damn catchy.  It’s sung by someone who’s taking his fashion cues from Jimmy Fallon and/or Mike Flowers.
• Belarus “Butterflies”.  The song is saccharine dreck.  But in the staging, the 3 women in band 3+2 grow butterfly wings.  We eagerly await the semifinal to determine if their metamorphosis vaults them into the pantheon of legendary Eurovision kitsch.
• Malta “My Dream”.  It has a man dressed as a bird flapping behind singer Thea Garrett. A Maltese falcon, if you will.
• ESTONIA!!!!! “Siren”.  There’s one entry every year that is actually cool; that is to say we genuinely like it.  Unfortunately, the entry is often too offbeat to find a wide audience from a 3-minute listen.  Malcolm Lincoln’s vocalist does a funny dance, but it’s probably not enough to get them into the finals.  “Siren” draws comparisons with the likes of Simple Minds, but more austere, progressive, and melancholy.

Is anyone at risk for a nul points humiliation?

The United Kingdom had a successful 5^th place finish last year with an entry penned by Lord Andrew Lloyd Webber and Dianne Warren.  UK organizers attempted to replicate the model this year by bringing in another songwriting heavyweight.  Who they found was Pete Waterman, a songwriter who achieved success in the 80s by penning hits for Rick Astley, among others.  After what was undoubtedly a lot of coaxing and ego grooming, organizers persuaded Ol’ Pete to go to his filing cabinet and dredge up “That Sounds Good to Me”.  Unfortunately, the selection is ridiculously dated, a not-so-subtle echo of Kim Wilde’s “Kids in America”.  It cannot be saved by amiable singer Josh Dubovie, nor by the UK’s attempts to develop a more contemporary arrangement.  But, hey, our 2-year old likes it.

It’s as if Norway collectively thought, “That song Andrew Lloyd Webber wrote last year was quite good.  Let’s ape that.” That said, this is a stand-out anthem among all the ballads that are making it to Eurovision this year. Jen said that it shows you, rather then tells you, like all those “I love you I love you I love you” songs.  (That’s her term, based on Ukraine’s “I Love You,” which, I neglected to mention in the review, repeated the phrase “I love you” 12 times in English and nine times in Ukrainian.  Well, we assume that’s what he’s saying since we don’t speak Ukrainian.)

The Norway final was particularly strong.  I mentioned “Jealous ‘Cause I Love You” earlier, but the other stand-out for me was Keep of Kalessin’s “Dragontower,” because I’m still a teenaged metal head.

I mean, it’s not bad; it’s even kinda catchy, with some pretty cool backing vocals.  But I can’t say it really grabbed me.  (In fact, I was kind of rooting for Eläkeläiset’s “Hulluna humpasta” for sheer anarchy’s sake.)  We’ll see how memorable “Työlki ellää” is compared to the slew of inevitable post-Rybak neo-folk numbers that are surely coming this year.

The Norwegian Siste Sjansen show, incidentally, featured a Rybak rip-off number, Gaute Ormåsen’s “Synk eller svøm“. And it’s a terrific song in it’s own right, despite the similarities.  But my favorite of the runners-up, and one of the two that made it through to Norway’s upcoming final, is Venke Knutson’s “Jealous Cause I Love You”:

It doesn’t have a shot of winning the national final in a year when Norway is hosting Eurovision, so I’m just going to savor it now.

Also, Alexander Rybak is cashing in on his Eurovision win with a movie about himself.  If you watch the clip in this ESC Today article, you will want to move to Norway immediately to see it. Totally.

As for people looking for “Niels Brinck shirtless”, well, you’re on your own.

I put the predictions I got correct in bold, and I italicized correct calls in the top 10.

Obviously, I overvalued Finland and undervalued France.  As it turns out, Finland was the jury pick in the first semi, leapfrogging over FYR Macedonia and Montenegro to get to the final.

Asides: As unbelievable as it sounds to me, Croatia actually was the jury pick in the second semi, knocking out Serbia and jumping over Ireland and Poland. Also, the Czech Republic finished with nil point.  Ouch.  Even Belgium got une point.  Tragically, Latvia got seven points in its semi. Oof.

Anyway, as it turns out, Patricia Kaas has a pretty big following, which carried France to eighth place.  Had I done research…

I don’t think I was the only one who was shocked that Greece did not finish second.  I’d say that performing eighth might have hurt Sakis’ chances, except that Jóhanna went seventh, and Iceland finished second.  I also neglected to put Bosnia and Herzegovina in the top 10, which was a foolish mistake on my part.

Here’s my recap of the show, starting with Graham Norton’s performance.  He was great.  He’s no Sir Terry, but few are.  Give him 30 years to get it right, and I’m sure he will.  Aside from a grumble here and there, it looks like most everyone is in agreement on the job Norton did, judging from this Beeb article.

The opening of the show featured Cirque de Soleil, which if you like that sort of thing was fine and if you don’t wasn’t.  Dima Bilan came on with an elaborate intro that required him to walk down a treadmill and break through walls.  Then he sang “Believe” and sounded great.

UPDATE: He of course sounded great because he was lip synching.  Elena Gheorghe was actually the one singing, I think.

The vote tabulation entertainment featured people writhing and jumping around pools suspended over the auditorium and the green room.  It was strange, yet neat at the same time.  The hosts were fine.  The green room reporter only appeared once.  The humorous “woman on the street” segments were supposed to offer proof that Russia can laugh at its image.  Aside from the ice cream cones filled with caviar, it really didn’t, but A for effort.

And now, the songs:

1. Lithuania
   Sasha Son surely was hurt by going first. He still did a great job, and like Andy Abraham last year, he did not deserve to be towards the bottom of the table.
2. Israel
   Noa and Mira landed in the middle of the pack last night.  The significance of the “There Must Be Another Way” probably didn’t help it overcome other stronger ballads.  Tonight’s performance was better than the one from the semis, though.
3. France
   Like Chiara, Kaas just stood on stage and sang.  Obviously, that coupled with her following earned the French high marks.
4. Sweden
   Meh.  I was glad “La voix” was early in the night, because by this point, I was really sick of this song.
5. Croatia
   I have no idea why the jury picked this to go through.  Maybe they thought Igor and Andrea would finally put together a solid performance. They didn’t.
6. Portugal
   I just died of tweeness. Loved the percussionist, though.
7. Iceland
   As mentioned, Jóhanna hit this out of the park. I said to Jen that Iceland did just enough to finish respectably without actually hurting the nation’s economy further by winning.  This was right before Graham Norton said it.
8. Greece
   Poor Sakis.  Not that seventh place is anything to sniff at.
9. Armenia
   I don’t have much to say about this.  Inga and Anush were solid, but “Jan Jan” is just not a song that does anything for me.
10. Russia
    The staging of “Mamo” was interesting: Anastasiya Prykhodko’s face on all the video screens singing along with her live.  As the song went on, she slowly aged on the video screens.  It was effective, until she started caterwauling at the end of the song.
11. Azerbaijan
    I had a good feeling about “Always.”  It’s a pretty generic Mediterranean pop song, but AySel and Arash sold it pretty well.  Also, apparently AySel is a fairly big star in the Balkans.
12. Bosnia and Herzegovina
    Pretentiously staged, but well-performed.
13. Moldova
    Another song I will not miss.  It was the only pseudo-traditional number on the night, which I think helped it stand out it a bit.
14. Malta
    If the results for Sakis and Greece were disappointing, then Chiara’s 22nd place finish has to be devastating.  At least Malta made it to the finals this year.  Small comfort, though.
15. ESTONIA!!!!!
    “Rändajad” is just a sweet number, and Urban Symphony sounded great doing it.  Well done.
16. Denmark
    Niels Brinck sang “Believe Again” much better in the final than he did in the semis.  This has actually turned out to be my favorite entry of the year.
17. Germany
    “Miss Kiss Kiss Bang” was the biggest misfire on the night.  Alex and Oscar must have brought in Dita von Teese way late in the staging process, because she was just sort of there, stripping in the background while two back-up dancers performed in front of her.  Then, halfway through the song Alex announces her, even though she’d been on stage the entire time.  And she didn’t DO anything really, other than pose a bit.  The whole thing just fell flat.  And they did not out-perform Roger Cicero in the end, either.
18. Turkey
    Hadise was another performer who put it together in the final.  She still can’t bellydance, though.
19. Albania
    UPDATED: I have to say, I cannot stop watching Kejsi Tola’s “Carry Me In Your Dreams.” If you haven’t seen it, here it is:

    Graham Norton commented, “What’s the blue thing? Was it sponsored by Sani-Flush?”  I just figured he was the Stig’s Albanian cousin.  Then there are the two back-up dancers, who look like mini-Wes Borlands.  And Jen described the graphics on the large video screens in the back as “Price Is Right circa 1974.”  The whole thing is just bizarre.

    Norton summed this up best: “Now she’s only 17, so please bear that in mind. She wasn’t strong enough to tell them that she didn’t want these creatures on stage with her.  But where was her mother? Why didn’t she step in and say no?”  After “Carry Me In Your Dreams” was over, he added, “If you’re seeing those things in your dreams, change your medication.”

20. Norway
    Another great Norton quote: “I’m sure you’ll like it. I did. Three days ago. I have to admit that having heard it quite a few times, Alexander now has a face I’d quite like to slap.”  Instead, he finished with the most points ever in a Eurovision Song Contest.
21. Ukraine
    Norton noted early on that Svetlana Loboda mortgaged her apartment to pay for the elaborate engine set.  Later, when announcing the number to call for Ukraine, he said, “To save Svetlana’s flat, dial…” 

    UPDATED: I forgot to mention that Jen described her during the semis as a “slutty Juicy Newton.”

22. Romania
    Rumor was that Elena was lip-synching to the performance of another singer on stage.  If she was, she is the most amazing lip-syncher ever.  The performance was pretty low-energy, though.
23. United Kingdom
    Andrew Lloyd Webber played piano for Jade on this, and she sang very well: all the touring helped her get this right.  Also, she was the only performer to walk down to the apron in front of the stage. I still hate the song, but she did a great job.
24. Finland
    Being a minor dance hit does not add up to Eurovision success, as it turns out.  A last place finish may mean the Finnish start sending metal bands again.
25. Spain
    Instantly forgettable.

Overall, this was the strongest show we’ve seen in the few years we’ve been watching.  It’ll be a hard one to beat.  I hope Albania brings back the S&M Gumby next year, though.

I’ve been trying for most of the day to figure out what my top 10 and last place predictions are going to be.  Frankly, it’s difficult, because Croatia aside, this is a pretty strong year.  It’s certainly the best one since I’ve started watching Eurovision religiously.  About the only two things I can say with any certainty is that Norway is going to win and there will be no nil point this year.

In a fair and just world, Croatia would finish last place, but I really don’t see that happening.  I’m going with France, because it’s third in the line-up and way too freaking French.  Croatia will probably finish 15th.

For the top 10… well, I’m going with pure gut on this:

1. Norway
2. Greece
3. Azerbaijan
4. Ukraine
5. United Kingdom
6. Malta
7. Finland
8. Armenia
9. ESTONIA!!!!!
10. Turkey

Now, I’m off to practice saying “I’m Gumby, dammit” in Albanian until our guests arrive for the big show.

• Ireland
• Norway
• Denmark
• Azerbaijan
• Greece
• Lithuania
• Albania
• Ukraine
• ESTONIA!!!!!
• Netherlands

If you compare this list with mine, there are a lot of similarities, even though Jen made her choices during the run of the program.  She picked Ireland, Lithuania and Albania all on the strength of their performances.  If I had seen Hungary before I made my picks, I wouldn’t have chosen it, because frankly Zoli Ádok’s performance was awful.  I would have gone with Ireland instead, and we would have had the exact same picks.

As it was, this was another night where we got eight out of 10.  Here are the final results:

• Croatia
• Norway
• Denmark
• Azerbaijan
• Greece
• Lithuania
• Moldova
• Albania
• Ukraine
• ESTONIA!!!!!

I was right to fear Moldova, especially because Nelly Ciobanu and her posse were high energy, as expected.  In the end, I wasn’t surprised to see them go through.

Croatia, on the other hand… what the hell?  Igor and Andrea were not as catastrophically out of tune as Kamil and Nela from Slovakia were, but that didn’t mean they were in tune by any stretch of the imagination.  This couldn’t possibly be the jury pick, could it?

So aside from Ireland getting robbed by Croatia, the results went pretty much the way we expected them to.  That the Netherlands got knocked out was not a shock, ultimately.  De Toppers’ performance was low-energy, and the glowing hand effect didn’t quite work.  The large woman with the rhinestone turntable strapped around her waist was a nice touch, though.

For me, the two surprises on the night were Lithuania and Albania.  Sasha Son has done a lot of work on “Love” since we saw him debut the English-language version at the Russia national final.  Using the key change to switch languages from English to Russian was a nice touch that really paid off.  Even Jen, who has not been a fan of this song at all, was impressed.

We both also really liked Kejsi Tola’s performance of  “Carry Me In Your Dreams” for Albania.  The staging was bizarre: what was up with the b-boy mimes and the rhinestone Gumby? But despite a stiff stage presence, Kejsi sang well.  Moreover, the song benefited from the translation into English.

The biggest disappointments on the night were Poland and Hungary. I talked about Hungary earlier, but I’ll add that I really need to stop picking the disco songs to go through. Poland’s entry, “I Don’t Wanna Leave”, is a legitimately good song, but Lidia Kopania did not sing it well.

Svetlana Loboda’s “Be my Valentine! (Anti-Crisis Girl)” decided to aim strictly for the gay audience.  How else to explain the shirtless muscular back-up dancers in Spartan costumes?  For the straight audience, Svetlana went for something subtle: looping graphics of pistons chugging on the video display.

Ultimately, it all comes down to Norway and Greece, however, with Norway the heavy favorite.  Sakis Rouvas went for it on “This Is Our Night,” with an elaborate stage prop to help out with his stage movement (which is a problem because he really can’t dance).  It’s hard to explain, so check this clip out.

Meanwhile, Alexander Rybak brought his Harry Potter-meets-Legolas-meets-Itzhak Perlman charm to “Fairytale.”  The staging hasn’t changed much since the Norway national final, but he took full advantage of the video screens with quaint fairytale imagery all over the place that did not distract from him one bit.  My bet is that he’ll win, with Sakis in second.

As for the rest of the show, we started with a Russian folk band doing a medley of past Eurovision winners, and you haven’t lived until you’ve heard “Waterloo” on a balalaika.  There were, of course, dancing bears.  There also were giant electronic nesting dolls that were very cool.

For the vote-tabulation entertainment, the Mariinsky Ballet company performed traditional dances from around Europe, including the Zorba the Greek dance that drove all the Greeks in the front row wild.  How do the Greeks ALWAYS have the front row at Eurovision?

Finally, as expected, Intars Busulis’ “Probka” did not make it to the final.  I thought he did a fantastic job anyway, so check out his performance here.

By the way, we’ve updated the ESC2009 page with the running order for the final.

* Most surprising (in a good way) finalist — Denmark
* Biggest “YES” moment — Greece
* Gayest moment — Ukraine
* Most improved — Lithuania
* Least deserving finalist — Croatia
* Biggest disappointment — Poland
* Contestant you most want on your side in a bar fight — Sweden
* Highest concept — Bosnia & Herzegovina
* Most elven — Norway
* Most Moldovan — Moldova
* Greenest man — Albania
* Biggest balls — Malta
* Most in need of the power of the Lord — United Kingdom

For example,  on the one hand, past evidence would point to Croatia and Serbia going through.  On the other hand, have you heard their songs?  Even Serbians don’t like their song (which ended up going through based on jury voting).

Anyway, I will go so far as to say I have no confidence in any pick I made after ESTONIA!!!!!

• Norway - Alexander Rybak: “Fairytale” (This is your likely winner)
• Greece - Sakis Rouvas: “This Is Our Night” (This is your likely dark horse winner)
• Netherlands - De Toppers: “Shine” (Have you seen the official video? Holy shit!)
• Ukraine - Svetlana Loboda: “Be My Valentine (Anti-Crisis Girl)” (It puts the “slutty” in “Ukraine Eurovision entry by Svetlana Loboda”)
• ESTONIA!!!!! – Urban Symphony: “Rändajad” (There can be only one classical-pop entry. Sorry, Quartissimo)
• Hungary - Zoli Ádok: “Dance With Me” (Man, I love this song)
• Azerbaijan - AySel and Arash: “Always“
• Lithuania - Sasha Son: “Love“
• Albania - Kejsi Tola: “Carry Me In Your Dreams“
• Denmark - Niels Brinck: “Believe Again” (Ronan Keating’s involvement may earn this the wild card spot if it doesn’t get voted through)

I’m not picking my non-ironic favorite song, Latvia’s “Probka“, to go through because I think it’s just way too odd a song for Eurovision voters. On the other hand, I am picking my ironic favorite song, The Netherlands’ “Shine“, because, well, seriously, watch the official video. If you watched when I linked to it before, watch it again.

I am not sure if I’m going to regret not picking “Hora din Moldova” to go through.  It’s got a good placement in the line-up (15th), and it should certainly be performed in a highly energetic manner, so it has a shot.  I’m operating under the assumption that it’s just a wee too manic for the rest of Europe.  Also, every one of the songs I picked (and a few I didn’t) are better than this one.

Again, you can watch the big show live at at the Eurovision website at 9:00p CET/3:00p EDT, or on-demand after the show (probably around 1:00a CET/7:00p EDT).  I should mention you need to get the Octoshape plug-in to watch. It’s worth it.