Here we go.  Azerbaijan’s stock has fallen a bit after the semi, and because it’s got the opening slot on the night.  Adorable magic pixie German girl benefits!

1. Germany
2. Azerbaijan
3. Turkey
4. Belgium
5. Armenia
6. Israel
7. Denmark
8. Georgia
9. Ireland
10. Romania

Last place: United Kingdom

No nul points this year.

If I had a vote, I would vote for Serbia, because I am so cheeky.

1. Denmark
2. Germany
3. Azerbaijan
4. Israel
5. Ireland
6. Turkey
7. Armenia
8. Belgium
9. Greece
10. Iceland

…

25. United Kingdom

Jen
Armenia
Israel
Denmark
Sweden
Azerbaijan
Romania
Ireland
Croatia
Georgia
Turkey

Chris
Armenia
Israel
Denmark
Sweden
Azerbaijan
Ireland
Bulgaria
Croatia
Georgia
Turkey

Who are the contenders?

In the days leading up to the contest, Azerbaijan has the momentum.  Safura’s “Drip Drop” is a pop-ballad with RnB influences; it’s relevant, soulful, and catchy. It’s the buzz entry and the bookie’s choice.

Other entries poised to compete this year:

• Germany “Satellite”, a cute, quirky pop tune, made cuter and quirkier by Lena’s odd English pronunciations.  She’s an engaging performer and has the influential support of Stefan Raab behind her.
• Armenia “Apricot Stone,” a singer-songwriter story song.  The staging will feature a tree growing out of a giant apricot pit. Roald Dahl would be proud.
• Israel “Milim”. This year’s best ballad, gloriously oversung by Harel Skaat.
• Denmark “In a Moment Like This,” an uber-pop duet.  The shine is off slightly because Chanee and N’Evergreen have struggled in rehearsals, but if they can execute the song is just like candy—sweet, irresistible, and goes down real easy. 

Which are this year’s guilty pleasures?

Let’s face it, this is why we watch.  At the core of an unhealthy Eurovision obsession is a deep affection for kitsch, train wrecks, and pop culture gone horribly awry.

• Iceland “Je ne se Quois”.  In the capable hands of Hera Bjork, Iceland’s perennial Eurovision entry back-up singer, this song is a disco diva masterpiece.
• Serbia “Ovo je Balkan”. This year’s shout out entry to the Balkans is damn catchy.  It’s sung by someone who’s taking his fashion cues from Jimmy Fallon and/or Mike Flowers.
• Belarus “Butterflies”.  The song is saccharine dreck.  But in the staging, the 3 women in band 3+2 grow butterfly wings.  We eagerly await the semifinal to determine if their metamorphosis vaults them into the pantheon of legendary Eurovision kitsch.
• Malta “My Dream”.  It has a man dressed as a bird flapping behind singer Thea Garrett. A Maltese falcon, if you will.
• ESTONIA!!!!! “Siren”.  There’s one entry every year that is actually cool; that is to say we genuinely like it.  Unfortunately, the entry is often too offbeat to find a wide audience from a 3-minute listen.  Malcolm Lincoln’s vocalist does a funny dance, but it’s probably not enough to get them into the finals.  “Siren” draws comparisons with the likes of Simple Minds, but more austere, progressive, and melancholy.

Is anyone at risk for a nul points humiliation?

The United Kingdom had a successful 5^th place finish last year with an entry penned by Lord Andrew Lloyd Webber and Dianne Warren.  UK organizers attempted to replicate the model this year by bringing in another songwriting heavyweight.  Who they found was Pete Waterman, a songwriter who achieved success in the 80s by penning hits for Rick Astley, among others.  After what was undoubtedly a lot of coaxing and ego grooming, organizers persuaded Ol’ Pete to go to his filing cabinet and dredge up “That Sounds Good to Me”.  Unfortunately, the selection is ridiculously dated, a not-so-subtle echo of Kim Wilde’s “Kids in America”.  It cannot be saved by amiable singer Josh Dubovie, nor by the UK’s attempts to develop a more contemporary arrangement.  But, hey, our 2-year old likes it.

I put the predictions I got correct in bold, and I italicized correct calls in the top 10.

Obviously, I overvalued Finland and undervalued France.  As it turns out, Finland was the jury pick in the first semi, leapfrogging over FYR Macedonia and Montenegro to get to the final.

Asides: As unbelievable as it sounds to me, Croatia actually was the jury pick in the second semi, knocking out Serbia and jumping over Ireland and Poland. Also, the Czech Republic finished with nil point.  Ouch.  Even Belgium got une point.  Tragically, Latvia got seven points in its semi. Oof.

Anyway, as it turns out, Patricia Kaas has a pretty big following, which carried France to eighth place.  Had I done research…

I don’t think I was the only one who was shocked that Greece did not finish second.  I’d say that performing eighth might have hurt Sakis’ chances, except that Jóhanna went seventh, and Iceland finished second.  I also neglected to put Bosnia and Herzegovina in the top 10, which was a foolish mistake on my part.

Here’s my recap of the show, starting with Graham Norton’s performance.  He was great.  He’s no Sir Terry, but few are.  Give him 30 years to get it right, and I’m sure he will.  Aside from a grumble here and there, it looks like most everyone is in agreement on the job Norton did, judging from this Beeb article.

The opening of the show featured Cirque de Soleil, which if you like that sort of thing was fine and if you don’t wasn’t.  Dima Bilan came on with an elaborate intro that required him to walk down a treadmill and break through walls.  Then he sang “Believe” and sounded great.

UPDATE: He of course sounded great because he was lip synching.  Elena Gheorghe was actually the one singing, I think.

The vote tabulation entertainment featured people writhing and jumping around pools suspended over the auditorium and the green room.  It was strange, yet neat at the same time.  The hosts were fine.  The green room reporter only appeared once.  The humorous “woman on the street” segments were supposed to offer proof that Russia can laugh at its image.  Aside from the ice cream cones filled with caviar, it really didn’t, but A for effort.

And now, the songs:

1. Lithuania
   Sasha Son surely was hurt by going first. He still did a great job, and like Andy Abraham last year, he did not deserve to be towards the bottom of the table.
2. Israel
   Noa and Mira landed in the middle of the pack last night.  The significance of the “There Must Be Another Way” probably didn’t help it overcome other stronger ballads.  Tonight’s performance was better than the one from the semis, though.
3. France
   Like Chiara, Kaas just stood on stage and sang.  Obviously, that coupled with her following earned the French high marks.
4. Sweden
   Meh.  I was glad “La voix” was early in the night, because by this point, I was really sick of this song.
5. Croatia
   I have no idea why the jury picked this to go through.  Maybe they thought Igor and Andrea would finally put together a solid performance. They didn’t.
6. Portugal
   I just died of tweeness. Loved the percussionist, though.
7. Iceland
   As mentioned, Jóhanna hit this out of the park. I said to Jen that Iceland did just enough to finish respectably without actually hurting the nation’s economy further by winning.  This was right before Graham Norton said it.
8. Greece
   Poor Sakis.  Not that seventh place is anything to sniff at.
9. Armenia
   I don’t have much to say about this.  Inga and Anush were solid, but “Jan Jan” is just not a song that does anything for me.
10. Russia
    The staging of “Mamo” was interesting: Anastasiya Prykhodko’s face on all the video screens singing along with her live.  As the song went on, she slowly aged on the video screens.  It was effective, until she started caterwauling at the end of the song.
11. Azerbaijan
    I had a good feeling about “Always.”  It’s a pretty generic Mediterranean pop song, but AySel and Arash sold it pretty well.  Also, apparently AySel is a fairly big star in the Balkans.
12. Bosnia and Herzegovina
    Pretentiously staged, but well-performed.
13. Moldova
    Another song I will not miss.  It was the only pseudo-traditional number on the night, which I think helped it stand out it a bit.
14. Malta
    If the results for Sakis and Greece were disappointing, then Chiara’s 22nd place finish has to be devastating.  At least Malta made it to the finals this year.  Small comfort, though.
15. ESTONIA!!!!!
    “Rändajad” is just a sweet number, and Urban Symphony sounded great doing it.  Well done.
16. Denmark
    Niels Brinck sang “Believe Again” much better in the final than he did in the semis.  This has actually turned out to be my favorite entry of the year.
17. Germany
    “Miss Kiss Kiss Bang” was the biggest misfire on the night.  Alex and Oscar must have brought in Dita von Teese way late in the staging process, because she was just sort of there, stripping in the background while two back-up dancers performed in front of her.  Then, halfway through the song Alex announces her, even though she’d been on stage the entire time.  And she didn’t DO anything really, other than pose a bit.  The whole thing just fell flat.  And they did not out-perform Roger Cicero in the end, either.
18. Turkey
    Hadise was another performer who put it together in the final.  She still can’t bellydance, though.
19. Albania
    UPDATED: I have to say, I cannot stop watching Kejsi Tola’s “Carry Me In Your Dreams.” If you haven’t seen it, here it is:

    Graham Norton commented, “What’s the blue thing? Was it sponsored by Sani-Flush?”  I just figured he was the Stig’s Albanian cousin.  Then there are the two back-up dancers, who look like mini-Wes Borlands.  And Jen described the graphics on the large video screens in the back as “Price Is Right circa 1974.”  The whole thing is just bizarre.

    Norton summed this up best: “Now she’s only 17, so please bear that in mind. She wasn’t strong enough to tell them that she didn’t want these creatures on stage with her.  But where was her mother? Why didn’t she step in and say no?”  After “Carry Me In Your Dreams” was over, he added, “If you’re seeing those things in your dreams, change your medication.”

20. Norway
    Another great Norton quote: “I’m sure you’ll like it. I did. Three days ago. I have to admit that having heard it quite a few times, Alexander now has a face I’d quite like to slap.”  Instead, he finished with the most points ever in a Eurovision Song Contest.
21. Ukraine
    Norton noted early on that Svetlana Loboda mortgaged her apartment to pay for the elaborate engine set.  Later, when announcing the number to call for Ukraine, he said, “To save Svetlana’s flat, dial…” 

    UPDATED: I forgot to mention that Jen described her during the semis as a “slutty Juicy Newton.”

22. Romania
    Rumor was that Elena was lip-synching to the performance of another singer on stage.  If she was, she is the most amazing lip-syncher ever.  The performance was pretty low-energy, though.
23. United Kingdom
    Andrew Lloyd Webber played piano for Jade on this, and she sang very well: all the touring helped her get this right.  Also, she was the only performer to walk down to the apron in front of the stage. I still hate the song, but she did a great job.
24. Finland
    Being a minor dance hit does not add up to Eurovision success, as it turns out.  A last place finish may mean the Finnish start sending metal bands again.
25. Spain
    Instantly forgettable.

Overall, this was the strongest show we’ve seen in the few years we’ve been watching.  It’ll be a hard one to beat.  I hope Albania brings back the S&M Gumby next year, though.

I’ve been trying for most of the day to figure out what my top 10 and last place predictions are going to be.  Frankly, it’s difficult, because Croatia aside, this is a pretty strong year.  It’s certainly the best one since I’ve started watching Eurovision religiously.  About the only two things I can say with any certainty is that Norway is going to win and there will be no nil point this year.

In a fair and just world, Croatia would finish last place, but I really don’t see that happening.  I’m going with France, because it’s third in the line-up and way too freaking French.  Croatia will probably finish 15th.

For the top 10… well, I’m going with pure gut on this:

1. Norway
2. Greece
3. Azerbaijan
4. Ukraine
5. United Kingdom
6. Malta
7. Finland
8. Armenia
9. ESTONIA!!!!!
10. Turkey

Now, I’m off to practice saying “I’m Gumby, dammit” in Albanian until our guests arrive for the big show.

• Montenegro
• Czech Republic
• Sweden
• Armenia
• Turkey
• Israel
• Iceland
• Finland
• Malta
• Bosnia & Herzegovina

Jen wasn’t confident in her Czech pick, but thought it was gimmicky enough to go through.  She picked Finland because “Lose Control” is already a dance hit in Europe, and honestly, if I had known that, I probably would have picked Finland over Andorra.

Jen also picked Iceland based on the quality of Jóhanna’s performance.  I have to say, she was really good (as was the staging… except for the animated dolphin flying through the sky).  The song had done nothing for me before, but, like Norway’s Maria Haukaas Storeng last year, Jóhanna won me over.

In the end, we both got eight out of 10 right.  Here are the results of the first semi:

• Sweden
• Armenia
• Turkey
• Israel
• Iceland
• Romania
• Finland
• Portugal
• Malta
• Bosnia & Herzegovina

The really disappointing thing for both of us was that Montenegro didn’t go through.  It’s a great song, and Andrea Demirović sang it well.  Also, her backup dancer was fantastic in a completely campy way.  Words can’t describe it, so just go watch it. It’s worth it.

Speaking of things that words can’t describe, the opening number for the show was this big fairy tale story about Russian kids who learn to fly from a phoenix that they later help defeat a dragon. The narration was done by an American, although I have no idea who.  I’m pretending it was Sam Waterston.

The vote-tabulation entertainment was a Russian military choir singing traditional songs while Russian dancers did traditional dances. It was very Soviet, actually, but to Russia’s credit, the tank and the MIG that were on stage were painted in festive colors.  The tank, for example, was pink with flowers on it.  t.A.T.u. showed up at the end, and the best part of their performance was that the military choir sang back-up for them.

When the show began, the first thing we noticed (because it was hard to miss) was that the stage was enormous.  While the performers are closer to the audience than they have been the past few years, they are also dwarfed by the width of the stage.  Moreover, the video screens behind them are as long as the stage, with additional ones that tower over the performers.  If the graphics behind flashed on the screen are too busy, as they often were, performers can easily get lost.

In fact, some of the performances that stood out were ones that made minimal use of the video screens.  As mentioned, Iceland did well with just clouds and the occasional dolphin as a backdrop.  Malta’s Chiara had nothing but a starfield.  In fact, she didn’t have back-up singers, which was a brave, but effective choice.

On the other hand, Turkey’s Hadise and her female back-up singers and dancers were dressed in red (the males were in olive), and they performed in front of a red video, so they all got completely lost.  That Hadise sucks at belly dancing didn’t help.  On the other hand, she made it through, because, well, she’s from Turkey.  Only Dustin the Turkey as an entrant would keep Turkey from getting out of the semis. And even then I’m not sure.

Both the semis are being hosted by model Natalia Vodyanova and TV host Andrey Malakhov, and they of course were charmingly cheesy. Unlike the backstage reporter, whose name I didn’t catch, who was so skeezy that at one point, he actually made one of the Belgian back-up singers visibly uncomfortable.

Anyway, Natalia and particularly Andrey had the gregarious enthusiasm you’d expect from someone at a karaoke bar with a belly full of vodka.  They had a lot of jokes, but because English is not their first language, their timing on the jokes was just terrible.

They were more funny with their off-the-cuff banter during the announcement of the finalists.  The best part: when Israel got through, Andrey said, “The most political-correct song of the Eurovision 2009 goes to THE FINAL!” Brilliant.

Former Eurovision contestant Alsou and “media personality” Ivan Urgant are the hosts of the finals, so I’m going to miss Natalia and Andrey when they’re done hosting. Fortunately, we’ve got one more night with them tomorrow.

In fact, two of my three least favorite songs are here: the Czech entry “Aven Romale” and the Belgium entry “Copycat“, which I think is one of the worst Eurovision songs ever. (Which, when you think about it, is really saying something.)  Fortunately, these two songs are second and third on the night respectively, and I at least have hopes that Gipsy.cz will offer an amusing performance.

Ten songs go through, and I could try to explain the arcane rules behind the voting, but you might just want to visit the Wikipedia page on this year’s contest for that.  Instead, here are my picks to go on to the final.  We’ll see tomorrow how inaccurate these turn out to be.

• Turkey - Hadise: “Düm Tek Tek” (No doubt at all on this one)
• Bosnia and Herzegovina – Regina: “Bistra voda” (My fave on the night)
• Israel - Noa and Mira Awad: “There Must Be Another Way“
• Montenegro - Andrea Demirović: “Just Get Out of My Life“
• Malta - Chiara: “What If We” (If this doesn’t get voted through, I’d bet it’d be the wild card)
• Sweden - Malena Ernman: “La Voix“
• Armenia - Inga and Anush Arshakyan: “Jan Jan” (A weak entry, but Armenia is as solid as Turkey in getting out of the semis, I think)
• Portugal - Flor-De-Lis: “Todas as ruas do amor“
• Romania - Elena Gheorghe: “The Balkan Girls” (Not confident in this pick)
• Andorra - Susanne Georgi: “La teva decisió (Get a Life)” (Even less confident in this pick than the Romanian entry)

You can watch the big show live at at the Eurovision website at 9:00p CET/3:00p EDT, or on-demand after the show (probably around 1:00a CET/7:00p EDT).

I don’t know what to make of this one, if I’m being honest.  It is a very traditional sounding number, but it’s performed in English and it has the patented Eurovision Key Change (EKC).  Also, there’s a very Western-sounding bridge.  It’s catchy, but the Arshakyans oversing it a bit.  It’s kinda like Siouxsie and the Banshee’s recording a version of Elitsa Todorova and Stoyan Yankoukov’s “Water” at Peter Murphy’s house.

I think… I think I like it. But I’m not sure.  They’ll have to work on their performance for the big show, though.  That much I do know.

Updated: No. No I don’t like it. They sound like Charming Hostess, now that I listen again.  Only… you know… sucky.